sparksparkflame:

imtrisexual:

billythek1d:

yourdailyjosh:

I fear that our country is headed for a war with Iran.  If the reports about Israelis conducting strikes in Iran sometime in the coming six weeks prove to be true, than I think tensions between Iran and United States will boil over.  Iran will strike out against whoever they perceive as allies of Israel.  The United States 5th Fleet is stationed in the Straight of Hormuz and it could be another Operation Praying Mantis on a larger scale all over again.  

I’ve been going over this in my head for two weeks now and totally agree. Not to mention, if the United States gets involved, then the UN has to act. The UK would definitely intervene and possibly other EU nations and Canada. Basically, World War III, because the issue affects more than just the Middle East and the Americas.

I don’t think the future is so set in stone. I think it depends how far Obama is willing to go in support of Israel. Israel is, in my opinion, far too militant for its own good and our support for them is far too unconditional for our own good. I’d like to think Obama understands this, and I also think he would not be so quick to go to war in the Middle East, at least unilaterally, for a few reasons:

1. Obama has worked to rebuild the relationship with Europe that soured during Bush’s term due to Bush’s unilateral invasion/occupation of Iraq, which they largely saw as an abuse of power and illegitimate. If Obama goes to war unilaterally as a response, I do not think Europe as a whole will appreciate this. Even if this in defense of Israel, it is important to note that Europe does not share our unconditional support of Israel.

2. The invasion/occupation of yet another Middle Eastern country will worsen our relations with the Middle East as a whole, especially if we are viewed as taking a defensive action for Israel.

3. We simply cannot afford another war.

4. An Iran with nukes may sound scary, but I do not think Iran acquiring nukes is necessarily a tragedy. It simply makes them less vulnerable to Israel and the U.S. I think that their development of nukes is a defensive maneuver, not an offensive gesture at Israel.

5. The majority of U.S. citizens support diplomatic measures rather than military action to deal with the present situation, and I do not think the electorate would be overjoyed with yet another Middle Eastern clusterfuck.

Basically, I think that if any military action does happen involving the U.S., it will be multilateral. Also, military action would just be unpopular in general. I think at most a small military brush with Iran will occur. And I really, really, really, really, really doubt that something like World War III will occur. But I suppose anything could happen.

Also, I strongly disagree the idea that Iran will “strike out against whoever they perceive as allies of Israel.” Iran doesn’t have the military capability to just strike whoever they want. And as much as Ahmadinejad looks like a crazy person, the Iranian government isn’t made up of fools (and nor is Ahmadinejad, for all his blubbering). They have as many reasons not go to war as does the United States.

The only people this would “benefit” is…well, no one, as much as Israel would like to pretend. No one is going to nuke them, because they have a very substantial, and illegal, nuclear stockpile.

The end. Sorry that was so long. And no one will read this. Ha.

Just a few minor points to make. The EU is definitely not looking for a military clash. However, no one wants a nuclear Iran (yes, I know about the hypocrisy of Israel with their own arsenal outside IAEA regulation). Not even other Middle Eastern countries are too thrilled with the idea, and if Iran develops weapons-grade nuclear material, it will most likely develop into a regional arms race. I definitely agree that Iran would see nuclear weapons capabilities as a deterrent. However, you have to take into account Iran’s very close relationship with Hezbollah and, to a lesser degree as of recently, Hamas. A nuclear Iran puts these extremist groups under a nuclear umbrella. And analysts have already been wondering about the chance of Iran using Hezbollah to retaliate against US bases in Afghanistan and the Gulf and US interests abroad in the event of an Israeli attack. Iran may not have the military capability to strike whomever they want, but that doesn’t mean they are not a threat - especially with Hezbollah at the end of their leash.

I do not think Iran would ever use a nuclear arsenal for Hezbollah’s defense (or offense, for that matter). I mean, look at Pakistan…they’re nuclear and support the Taliban; however, no one is super-concerned that the Taliban will have nuclear capabilities any time soon.